Preseason Rankings
South Carolina
Southeastern
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.8#61
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.5#140
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#109
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#11
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 2.4% 7.3% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 7.2% 7.3% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 14.1% 7.3% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.5% 37.8% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.0% 35.2% 16.3%
Average Seed 7.4 7.4 8.2
.500 or above 63.8% 64.2% 34.6%
.500 or above in Conference 45.3% 45.5% 29.9%
Conference Champion 2.9% 2.9% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.9% 7.8% 21.0%
First Four4.2% 4.2% 1.5%
First Round35.3% 35.5% 18.4%
Second Round19.9% 20.0% 9.7%
Sweet Sixteen8.2% 8.3% 5.2%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.6% 2.1%
Final Four1.3% 1.3% 1.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 1.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina Upstate (Home) - 98.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.6 - 6.41.6 - 6.4
Quad 1b1.7 - 2.73.4 - 9.1
Quad 23.9 - 3.07.3 - 12.2
Quad 34.1 - 1.311.4 - 13.5
Quad 44.8 - 0.416.1 - 13.9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 334   South Carolina Upstate W 85-65 99%    
  Nov 09, 2018 222   Stony Brook W 74-62 92%    
  Nov 13, 2018 277   Norfolk St. W 78-63 95%    
  Nov 17, 2018 47   Providence L 68-69 47%    
  Nov 18, 2018 208   George Washington W 73-61 85%    
  Nov 26, 2018 97   Wofford W 72-68 74%    
  Nov 30, 2018 221   Coastal Carolina W 75-63 91%    
  Dec 05, 2018 173   @ Wyoming W 80-71 71%    
  Dec 08, 2018 19   @ Michigan L 64-69 26%    
  Dec 19, 2018 2   Virginia L 55-65 28%    
  Dec 22, 2018 18   Clemson L 65-70 45%    
  Jan 05, 2019 16   @ Florida L 67-72 25%    
  Jan 08, 2019 21   Mississippi St. L 67-72 46%    
  Jan 13, 2019 51   Missouri L 67-68 58%    
  Jan 16, 2019 83   @ Vanderbilt W 71-68 49%    
  Jan 19, 2019 46   @ LSU L 72-73 37%    
  Jan 22, 2019 13   Auburn L 73-79 41%    
  Jan 26, 2019 74   @ Oklahoma St. W 72-70 46%    
  Jan 29, 2019 9   Tennessee L 65-72 36%    
  Feb 02, 2019 80   @ Georgia W 66-63 49%    
  Feb 05, 2019 3   @ Kentucky L 68-78 15%    
  Feb 09, 2019 94   Arkansas W 75-71 71%    
  Feb 13, 2019 9   @ Tennessee L 65-72 19%    
  Feb 16, 2019 64   Texas A&M W 71-70 62%    
  Feb 19, 2019 118   Mississippi W 76-71 76%    
  Feb 23, 2019 21   @ Mississippi St. L 67-72 27%    
  Feb 26, 2019 39   Alabama L 69-71 54%    
  Mar 02, 2019 51   @ Missouri L 67-68 39%    
  Mar 05, 2019 64   @ Texas A&M W 71-70 42%    
  Mar 09, 2019 80   Georgia W 66-63 68%    
Projected Record 16.1 - 13.9 8.1 - 9.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 2.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 6.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 2.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.4 3.0 3.9 1.0 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 4.6 1.4 0.1 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.6 4.3 2.8 0.3 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.3 3.4 0.5 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.9 0.8 0.0 9.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.0 1.3 0.0 9.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 2.4 3.5 1.6 0.1 8.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 6.7 13th
14th 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.3 14th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.8 6.0 8.9 10.1 11.5 11.3 11.8 9.8 8.2 6.6 3.8 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.8% 0.3    0.2 0.0
16-2 88.5% 0.6    0.4 0.1
15-3 63.3% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
14-4 27.0% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.9% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 20.4% 79.6% 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.4% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 2.9 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.6% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.7 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.8% 99.2% 11.0% 88.2% 5.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
12-6 6.6% 94.2% 6.3% 87.9% 6.4 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 93.8%
11-7 8.2% 88.1% 6.8% 81.3% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 87.2%
10-8 9.8% 69.6% 4.7% 64.9% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.0 68.1%
9-9 11.8% 43.8% 3.0% 40.8% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 42.0%
8-10 11.3% 19.9% 3.2% 16.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 17.3%
7-11 11.5% 5.4% 1.9% 3.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 3.6%
6-12 10.1% 2.2% 1.6% 0.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.9 0.6%
5-13 8.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0%
4-14 6.0% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0
3-15 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.8
2-16 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 37.5% 3.9% 33.6% 7.4 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.0 1.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 62.5 35.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 51.8 48.2